Keep A Close Watch On Possible Bottom

Although I don't consider a one-month change in direction a "trend", it is definitely worth keeping a eye on new and existing homes sales over the next quarter. If you look at the graph below you will see that July of 2008 showed an "uptick" then the market continued to fall.

New Home Sales Suggest Possible Bottoming

New homes sales jumped 4.7% in February from January and it could be a sign that the housing market is finally bottoming out. "We have been looking for a bottom to form sometime in the first half of the year and it looks like things have firmed up a little bit," said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family homes rose from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 322,000 in January to 337,000 in February. The bureau revised the January sales number upward from 309,000. The new home sales report combined with the 4.4% jump in sales of previously owned homes is "very encouraging at this point," Mr. Anderson said. But he wants to see a couple more months of good reports before calling a bottom. "Now that the Federal Reserve is trying to push down mortgages, we are seeing a refi boom and it seems like it is helping to give some confidence to buyers to go ahead with a purchase."