Tuesday, June 30, 2009

California finally runs out of cash


Posted Jun 30 2009, 02:25 PM by Todd Harrison
Rating:

It's official: California is broke.

For months, the most populous U.S. state has been in the throes of a historic budget crisis, as lawmakers have repeatedly failed to agree on how to resolve a $24 billion deficit.

What was once the country's richest state is preparing to issue IOUs to a host of creditors, according to the Financial Times. Among the dubious recipients of these IOUs: contractors, information-technology companies and food-service groups that cater to prisons. Funding for education and interest payments on its bonds are guaranteed by state law.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is taking a hard line with legislators, accusing them of offering up a piecemeal solution to the state's woes: "I will veto any majority tax increase bill that punishes taxpayers for Sacramento's failure to live within its means. It's time for the Legislature to send me a budget that solves our entire deficit without raising taxes," the Governator said Monday.

Lawmakers appear blindsided. It's almost like the state went broke all of a sudden and they haven't had time to properly prepare a solution. Not true: The state has been in and out of financial crisis for more than a decade.

After Schwarzenegger vetoed an $18 billion budget package in January, members of the California Legislature pulled a literal all-nighter to try to agree on spending cuts, tax hikes and other measures to get the state back on sound financial footing. The proposed agreement -- hailed as an 11th-hour solution to what could have become a fiscal nightmare -- was put to a statewide referendum in May.

Voters rejected the proposal, soundly. Of the five measures on the ballot, the only one that passed concerned new rules that cut the pay for elected officials. And for good reason.

California politicians are a woeful bunch. Despite being home to some of the most profitable and innovative companies in the world, the state is perennially short of cash. Oracle (ORCL), Google (GOOG), and Genentech (DNA) all hail from the San Francisco Bay Area, while San Diego remains a mecca for biotechnology research and is home to mobile-communications giant Qualcomm (QCOM).

The state has vast natural-resource reserves, a booming agricultural industry, is a popular tourist destination and has some of the most heavily trafficked ports in the world. Good weather and generally high quality of life have made California the destination for dream-seekers for more than 150 years.

Yet, despite everything it has going for it, California's political process is a complete disaster. In an attempt to allow voters to play a more direct role in governance, the state's referendum system allows citizens to collect signatures and get measures onto statewide ballots. Enough votes on election day and any Californian can see his or her whimsical dream become law.

This has created a patchwork of legislation, rules and special interests that have hogtied what would be the seventh-largest economy, were it a sovereign nation.

As the calendar turns tonight on its new fiscal year, California could be the first state -- like its bailout-begging brethren on Wall Street -- to go hat in hand to Washington pleading for a rescue.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Andrew Jeffery.

JMO:

One way to create revenue without increasing taxes is to begin to enforce the vacant property ordinances that are already on the books. With fines (to the banks) that could reach up to $1,000 per day they could quickly motivate banks to work with homeowners to keep them in the property. Expect to see this topic raised in their budget meetings. Once CA starts everyone will follow.

Monday, June 29, 2009

You May Be Paying Too Much For Property Taxes

I came across this interesting article written by Danielle Hoston on the MomLogic website.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Tax Benefits On 2nd Homes Have Changed

This information was brought to my attention by a real estate investor here in Arizona. Previously, 2nd homes and investment properties were exempt from capital gains tax if the owned could provide evidence that they lived in the home for 2 of the previous 5 years prior to selling the property. That is no longer available.

JMO:
I strongly recommend if you are thinking of selling your 2nd home or investment property that you meet with your tax advisor to discuss this change in the tax code as it may impact your asking price or even your decision to sell. With home prices down, the added tax expense may represent the difference between a profit and a loss. Also, with the capital gains reverting back to the previous levels beginning in 2011, your taxes could increase by up to 5%

Mediation Is Another Way To Stop Foreclosures

In the continuing effort to reduce foreclosures some states are turning to mediation and others are suggesting mandatory mediation.

JMO:

I think this is a great idea.
1. it brings opens discussion between the lender and homeowner which has been lacking thus far
2. It could be a deterrent for those homesowners that are choosing to walk away even though they have the ability to maintain their contractual obligation
3. It creates a forum for the lender to address the true, current market valuation of the property.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Southern California Prices Rise

Southern California Prices Rise for the First Time Since 2007

Picture of John Walsh For the first time since July 2007, there was an increase in the median sales price for Southern California home sales, according to MDA DataQuick, San Diego. The median sales price for May was $249,000, up 0.8% from $247,000 in April but down 32.7% from $370,000 a year ago. Furthermore, for the 11th consecutive month, there was an increase in home sales in the region as a total of 20,775 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties in May. That was up 1.3% from 20,514 in April and up 22.8% from 16,917 a year ago. May's sales were the highest for that month since May 2006, when 30,303 homes sold. Foreclosure resales - homes sold in May that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months - accounted for 50.2% of resales. That was down from 53.5% in April and from a peak of 56.7% in February. "We appear to be in the early stages of the market gradually tilting back toward a more normal balance of sales across the home price spectrum. As more sellers get realistic, more buyers get off the fence and more lenders offer reasonable terms for high-end purchase financing, we'll see a more normal share of sales in the more established, higher-cost areas that have been nearly comatose," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president. "Let's not forget we're into the traditional homebuying season right now, meaning more people are purchasing for all of the normal reasons, such as a new job or to get settled before school starts. Many are concerned with finding the right home in the right area, not just the most deeply discounted home."


JMO:

We've been reporting this trend for several months. Now you have the data to back it up.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Foreclosures Postponed Due To Weather? What?!

California is reinstating it's foreclosure moratorium for an additional 90 days.

JMO:

OK, I had to read the entire article twice, because my first reaction was "are you *&$@ kidding me?!". But then I read that the lenders cannot foreclose until they can provide evidence that they've attempted to modify the existing loan. I think this is a fair warning by the state that they are serious about keeping homeowners in their homes if at all possible. And that is a good thing!

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

New Legislation Would Raise The Homebuyer Tax Credit To $15,000

There is proposed legislation that would nearly double the homebuyer tax credit.

JMO:
I will continue to follow this. Of particular interest is 1. when would it begin and 2. if it goes into effect before Dec 1, 2009, how would it effect those that already received the $8,000 tax credit. Would they receive a supplemental tax credit or would the be S.O.L.? Stay tuned...

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Payment Insurance Available for Mortgages

Payment Insurance Available for Mortgages

By Brad Finkelstein

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NEW YORK - With the growth in the unemployment statistics, some auto companies have created programs that will allow borrowers who lose their jobs to get a break from making their loan payments.

Such products have now filtered into the mortgage and home equity lending businesses as well.

For example Securian Financial, St. Paul, Minn., has a package of insurance programs lenders can offer their clientele who face involuntary unemployment.

According to a spokeswoman for Securian, "The involuntary unemployment programs do apply to home equity lending. And they apply to first mortgages as long as the lender doesn't sell the loan and keeps the servicing in-house."

The company said these "market-differentiating products" are designed for lenders to build borrower loyalty during tough times.

Securian's offerings include WorkSafe Debt Protection, a turnkey, borrower-pay involuntary unemployment program, which can be offered to complement other loan protection products.

Securian Payment Assurance, a non-contributory involuntary unemployment protection is offered at no cost to borrowers. This program can help financial institutions boost lending while reducing delinquencies and charge-offs, the company said.

It is willing to work with lenders to develop similar coverages within broader, customized debt protection programs.

Meanwhile, Kirkland, Wash.-based Cobalt Mortgage has partnered with the Rainy Day Foundation to provide mortgage protection for up to six months.

The program is known as the Cobalt Mortgage Payment Assurance Plan. The mortgage company and the foundation will make mortgage payments up to $1,800 per month at no fee or cost to the homebuyer.

Besides mortgage protection, the plan offers education and financial counseling to participants. It is available in Washington, Oregon and Arizona.

Cobalt Mortgage anticipates providing assistance to more than 75 homebuyers in the first month of the program.

The Rainy Day Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization headquartered in the District of Columbia.

According to its website, "The Rainy Day Foundation's mission is to 'Protect Homeowners from the Unexpected'. The foundation is not an insurance company and does not sell job loss insurance or insurance of any kind."

Monday, June 8, 2009

It's a crime to neglect foreclosed homes

Municipalities are cracking down on holders/owners of foreclosed properties.

JMO:
Those of you that read last week's blog post:
Know The Law Before You Buy Detroit Foreclosure Properties,
are now aware that municipalities are becoming more aggressive in creating or enforcing laws that are penalize holders/owners of REO product for not properly maintaining the properties. We are going to begin to see this more often for the following reasons:
  • there are health and safety risks associated with poorly maintained properties. With these risks come financial liability (fire, drownings, etc)
  • because of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, municipalities are further obligated to stimulate homeownership and need properties to be marketable
  • By enforcing penalties, banks are discouraged from foreclosure/eviction proceedings as studies have shown that an occupied home is less costly for the banks.
I believe we will begin to see more of these enforcements taking place in the very near future.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Banking Group Seeks Temporary $1 Million Loan Limit

Banking Group Seeks Temporary $1 Million Loan Limit

The Consumer Mortgage Coalition is urging the government-sponsored enterprises' regulator to suspend the conforming loan limits and allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase single-family loans of up to $1 million. It is difficult and expensive to get jumbo loans and the current GSE loan limits that range from $417,000 to $729,750 are "causing market disruptions," the mortgage industry group says in a letter to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. "We recommend that the conforming loan limit be suspended for loans below $1 million while the FHFA serves as the GSE conservator so that the government-sponsored enterprises can add liquidity throughout the mortgage market and across the country," CMC says in a June 1 letter. Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association is urging Congress to permanently raise the GSE conforming loan limit to $625,000 and retain the flexibility to provide financing of up to $729,750 in higher cost markets.


JMO: this would be a significant move! I believe that many homes prices have been "artificially" driven down to the conforming loan limit for that area. If we lifted the limit to $1,000,000 it would stimulate buying. The current spread between conforming loan rates and jumbo loan rates is so significant that it is a deterrent to all by the most determined jumbo loan applicants.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

The Free Fall In Home Prices Appears To Be Over...For Now

readers of this blog know that I have been posting indicators for more that 6 months signaling that the Real Estate market Free Fall is slowing and that certain key areas of the country are beginning to see signs of a turnaround.

JMO:
Of course, we could have simply found ourselves resting on a "ledge" and the free fall may continue if the market becomes flooded with a new wave of foreclosed properties. I am in the process of completing an analysis that would show where home prices would be in key cities if the real estate bubble had never happened. This analysis will assume the prevailing rate of appreciation for that specific area and will forecast home values from that point until today. This will give investors a more accurate indication of "true" market value versus "fair" market value.